Climate Change Impacts in Australia
Cost of Living
The natural environment affects every aspect of our economy and of our daily lives. From the production of food to the sale of insurance, the climate is an important determinant of the costs of goods and services. As climate change increases, so too will the cost of living. And those already financially vulnerable stand to be worst affected. The issues highlighted here are addressed in other pages of this website, however it is useful to consider all the aspects of climate change impacts on Australian society as these experiences will not occur in a vaccum, but influence each other.
For example, Richard Dennis predicts that higher temperatures and increased intensity of storms will lead to:
- More expensive insurance
- Increased energy demand and electricity costs, espcially air conditioners
- Greater health costs due to the southern, with spread of tropical and water borne diseases
- Increased public spending on infrastructure
The farming, tourism and employment pages also outlines implications of climate change on these economic major sectors, with an overall implication that national sources of revenue and resources will be affected. The consequences for some will be fairly straight forward - less disposal income, less economic autonomy.
In Australia - the world's driest habitable continent - agriculture stands to be severely affected by a hotter and more turbulent climate. Global temperatures are predicted to rise 1.4ºC to 5.8ºC by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Across much of Australia, this translates to higher temperatures, stronger storms, longer droughts and faster evaporation of stored water. Production costs, including insurance, are likely to rise while yields diminish.
As Cyclone Larry's destruction of North Queensland banana crops demonstrated in 2006, extreme weather events and adverse climatic conditions can affect the availability and cost of fresh food. ABS data points to adverse weather as a factor contributing to the rising price of fresh food. In 2005, poor weather and higher fuel costs drove up the prices of potatoes, broccoli, onions and tomatoes, as well as a variety of fruit. Overall, the price of vegetables rose 6.8% and fruit rose 5.8%, contributing to a total increase in food costs of 3.6% over the year to December 2005.
Higher fresh food costs will primarily affect vulnerable, low-income communities. There is increasing concern that low income people will be unable to afford healthy food, and will rely instead on low quality, processed foods that contribute to health problems such as childhood obesity. The Cancer Council of Victoria raised their concern about increasing rates of these "lifestyle" diseases in 2004 indicating the need to address this health issue on at a societal level.
Household transport costs may also rise. Because private cars are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, preventing damaging climate change will require that Australians drive less often, and for shorter distances. Even without policy action, rising oil and energy prices will make driving more expensive. Unless sustainable infrastructure is planned now for Australia's outer suburbs, those who already have few transport choices will face the greatest adjustment hardship. They will also remain disproportionately exposed to the health impacts of vehicle dependence, such as accident trauma, obesity and cardiopulmonary disease.
As well as increasing the cost of living, climate change is also the cost of our living - the highly consumptive, fossil-fuel intensive lifestyles of Australians that make us the second highest per capita greenhouse gas polluters in the world. By moving quickly to reduce emissions, Australians can avoid the worst impacts on those least able to afford them.
Employment
Climate change will damage many industries in Australia which jeopardises hundreds of thousands of jobs, particularly in those sectors most vulnerable to climate change such as tourism and agriculture.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports that the majority of Australians are employed in the manufacturing (13%) and retail trade (14.6%) sectors, closely followed by property and business services (11.3%). Availability and cost of goods and services will be affected by climate change, with potential indirect impacts on employment levels in these sectors.
While each industrial sector has differing vulnerability to climate change, the Australian Greenhouse Office 2005 report Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability assesses the agricultural sector as the most vulnerable to climate change. This is due to the dependence of agriculture on climate, exemplified by the $3 billion reduction farm output in 2002-2003 as a result of extended drought.
Economist Richard Denniss presented the following information on sectorial vulnerability to climate change at the 2005 CANA Conference:
|
SECTOR |
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE |
POTENTIAL COSTS |
|
| ||
|
Livestock Industry |
Large areas will experience lower rainfall and more drought events to reduce pasture growth. |
$8 billion export earnings annually |
|
| ||
|
Fruit and Vegetable crops |
Climate change will adversely affect the viability of the fruit and vegetable industry. |
$2 billion export and domestic earnings annually |
|
| ||
|
Perennial Horticulture |
Higher water demand and costs. Regions to be affected economically; Riverina and Goulburn Valley. |
$2 billion |
|
| ||
|
Annual Broad-acre Crops |
Marginal areas will be impacted |
$8 billion in export and domestic annually |
|
| ||
|
Fishing |
Australia's single largest fishery, $260 million western rock lobster, could be jeopardised. |
$2.3 billion annual export earnings |
|
| ||
|
Tourism |
Impacts on major ecological sites. Weather patterns could affect major tourism destinations such as Great Barrier Reef, create shorter snow seasons in snow fields and damage rainforests. |
Output $32 billion. Accounts for 5.7% of total employment and 11.2% of exports |
|
| ||
|
Increased Droughts |
|
Cost of 2002-03 drought $6.6 billion |
|
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|
Increased Bushfires |
Bushfires tend to occur during periods of prolonged dry spells. |
23 bushfires from 1967 to 1999 cost $2.5 billion
|
A recent study by the Allens Consulting Group compared three different greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios, and the rate of employment growth between 2010 and 2050. The results are summarised in the table below:
|
EMISSIONS REDUCTION SCENARIO |
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 2010-2050 |
|
| |
|
Business as usual |
38.9% |
|
| |
|
Early action to reduce greenhouse emissions |
38.7% (reduction of 22,000 jobs in 2050) |
|
| |
|
Delayed action to reduce greenhouse emissions |
36.2% (reduction of 271,000 jobs in 2050) |
|
| |
Industries such as mining and energy generation, while not as significant an employment sector as manufacturing, have the greatest impact on climate change. The UNFCCC reports that the energy sector is Australia's major source of emissions, accounting for 57.2% of the national total. The need to make deep cuts to greenhouse emissions provides Australia with the opportunity to build new industries that will drive growth and employment. The Australian Institute found that this would particularly benefit the economies of regional Australia.
ACIL Consulting completed a report on economic indicators for the renewable energy industry. The report found that renewable energy projects - solar, solar thermal, wind turbines, hydro power, wave and tidal power, biomass-derived liquid fuels and biomass-fired generation - employ more people for each unit of power produced than do coal seam methane and coal-fired power stations. This is particularly evident in small scale renewable energy companies.
As reported in the WWF Clean Energy Future report, economic modelling for the Ministerial Council on Energy (2003) shows that a 50% penetration of a low energy-efficiency scenario over a 12 year period would deliver the following substantial economic benefits:
- real GDP would be $1.8 billion higher (+0.2%);
- employment would increase by about 9000 (+0.1%);
- stationary final energy consumption would be reduced by 9% (-213 PJ);
- greenhouse gas emissions from stationary energy would be reduced by 9%.
An AGO-commissioned report by Mark Ellis and Associates found that direct employment levels in the renewable energy industry across Australia increased by 25 percent between 1999-2000 and 2000-01; and approximately 18 percent between 2000-01 and 2002-031.[1]
The Renewable Energy Generators of Australia (REGA) reports that for each direct job in the renewable energy industry, three indirect jobs in manufacturing, supplies, materials, and transport services are created, providing income and employment in the local economy. REGA also quote the following CFMEU figures of the decline in jobs in the conventional generation sector due to deregulation, technological change and productivity gains:
- Employment in the conventional electricity industry fell 32,700 from 1991 to 1999; and
- Employment in the coal industry declined by approximately 30% between 1996 and 2000.
Greenpeace found that if Australian adopted a 10% Mandatory Renewable Energy Target, over 14,000 new jobs in manufacturing, construction and maintenance would be created.
Farming and Rural Communities
The agricultural sector, which accounts for almost one fifth of Australian greenhouse gas emissions, is particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming. Changes to rainfall, temperature, storm intensity and drought frequency will increase evaporative water loss, increase soil erosion, stress livestock, damage crops, exacerbate fire risks and imperil fish stocks. This threatens the identity and livelihoods of more than half a million Australians directly reliant on fishing, farming and grazing. Read the CANA report, 'Uncertain Harvest'.
In 2003 the National Greenhouse Inventory showed that the agricultural sector, contributed 18% of Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions. Methane emissions from livestock, known as enteric fermentation, are the largest single agricultural contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, followed by land use changes (i.e. clearing vegetation for cropping, silviculture or grazing), and emissions associated with disturbance of agricultural soils. While land clearing has declined significantly in the period from 1990-2003, agricultural emissions grew by 4% (ibid).
The National Farmers Federation has described climate change as a major risk to farmers this century, with IPCC predictions of a possible increase in global average temperature of between 1 and 6ºC by the year 2070. In 2004, the Western Australian Farmers Federation publicly announced their support of the Kyoto Protocol as a mechanism to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and urged the federal government to ratify the agreement. This significant change in the position of the Farmers Federation is testament to the extreme impacts of climate change, in particular reduction in rainfall, on the agricultural sector.<
The Australian Greenhouse Office's Guide to Climate Science and Impacts> records the following consequences of climate change:
- a decrease in available water resources;
- higher temperatures and hence evaporation;
- increased heat stress of livestock causing reduced weight and milk yields;
- reduction in chilling cultivars, viticulture (vineyard yield);
- damage of crops from extreme weather, increased pests and disease outbreaks;
- a reduction of area of arable land from the 'dustbowl effect" and;
- a reduction in crop yield and quality.
The Australian Greenhouse Office report on Risk and Adaptation lists the following agricultural sectors as most at risk:
- those already stressed - economically or biophysically, as a result of land degradation, salination and loss of biodiversity;
- those at the edge of their climate tolerance; and
- those where large and long lived investments are being made - such as in dedicated irrigation systems, slow growing cultivars and processing facilities.
Dependence on water by the farming industry makes climate change a huge challenge for farming. Covering approximately 60% of Australia, the agricultural sector uses more land and water than any other domestic industry, with estimates in the Water Account Australia 2000-01 that agriculture accounted for 67% of water consumption in 2000-01.
As a result of the dependence on irrigation, the agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to frequent drought and high evaporative loss of stored water. The combination of rising average temperatures and more intense droughts (and floods) will have significant adverse impacts upon the viability of Australian agriculture.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics' latest Agricultural State Profile demonstrates the importance of reliable water supplies to farming businesses for Victoria. It shows that the number of farms in Victoria has dropped from 36,656 in 1997 to 32,463 in 2004, with the largest drop in 2002, the driest year in that period. Approximately 75% of water consumed for irrigation comes from the Murray-Darling Basin and based on a 'business as usual' scenario of greenhouse gas mitigation, evaporation of water from the Murray-Darling Basin could be as great as 45% by 2070.
The AGO's report on Risk and Vulnerability provides some assessment of the potential economic losses to the agriculture sector:Indigenous peoples, the elderly and families on low-incomes are likely to struggle to compensate for the increasing costs of basic food commodities as crop yields diminish due to water-stress. Higher production costs will be reflected in both the market and local availability. This has lead to a growing concern that higher prices for fresh produce will force those on low incomes to purchase lower quality, processed foods that already contribute to health complaints such as childhood obesity and diabetes.
Regional communities
Climate change will affect regional Australian communities unevenly. The following areas are listed as most vulnerable by the Australian Greenhouse Office because they already exhibit economic or environmental stress; host climate sensitive industries, or are of recognised national significance:
- low lying coastal population and resort centres;
- tropical and sub-tropical population centres;
- alpine regions;
- centres with a high dependence on agricultural and/or eco-tourism activities;
- remote Indigenous communities (particularly in the far north of Australia); and
- areas of southern and western Australia facing acute water shortages and supply constraints.
Impacts on Australia's natural environment
Tropical areas
Tropical cyclones and severe storms are likely to increase in intensity as a result of climate change, affecting communities in tropical areas. This could put some of Australia's significant population and tourist centres like Cairns, Broome, Darwin and Townsville, as well as remote communities, at considerably increased risk. Indigenous communities in remote areas will be particularly affected due to existing economic, housing and health vulnerability. The impacts of the Great Barrier reef will be significant.
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Alpine regions
Alpine ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to future climate changes. This is due to their small geographical extent, high degree of sensitivity, relatively modest seasonal snow cover and depth, and high diversity of flora and fauna, many of which are already threatened. It is predicted that Alpine regions will experience an 18-66% reduction in snow cover by 2030, and a 39-96% reduction by 2070. Such outcomes will have a seriously adverse impact on Alpine regions and their communities, and will greatly increase the risk of fire in sensitive areas previously devoid of fire (ibid). Overall, decreased snow and rainfall and increased temperatures caused by climate change will leave very little opportunity for Alpine ecosystems to adapt (ibid).
Remote Indigenous communities
(particularly in the far north of Australia)
Indigenous communities, already the most marginalised in Australia, have few of the resources available to other communities to deal with the impacts of climate change. As such, they will be disproportionately affected by health impacts such as changing distribution of vector borne diseases including malaria and dengue fever, as well as increased intensity of extreme weather, and loss of culturally significant ecosystems such as the Kakadu coastal wetlands.
CSIRO Darwin held a conference on the impacts of climate change upon Indigenous communities and published the presentations from this conference at http://www.dar.csiro.au/sharingknowledge/workshop.html.
Areas of southern and western Australia facing acute water shortages and supply constraints
The CSIRO has monitored trends in rainfall and found that in the north, trends have moved towards increasing rainfall over summer months in large parts of western, northern and central Australia from 1952 to 2002. In the south, long-recognised trends towards drier conditions have been observed for south-west Western Australia, and southern Australia as a whole (ibid). South West Western Australia has exprienced a 10-20% decrease in winter rainfall over the past 3 decades (http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/risk-vulnerability.html).
The Western Australian Environment Department reports that:
- rainfall is predicted to decrease 11% over the next 50 years, which equates to a 31% reduction in run-off into dams
- a 12% drop in rainfall and a 40% drop in run off has already occurred between 1975 and 2003.
Adelaide's water supply will be one of the most vulnerable of any Australian city under future climate change scenarios. The state of South Australia is likely to experience an overall decrease in winter water runoff of up to 25% by the year 2070. This will lead to an associated decrease in soil moisture of up to 10%. Southern Australia is also extremely vulnerable to an increase in bushfires, because extreme fire danger is connected with periodic drought conditions, leading to drying of fuel, and extremely hot summer and autumn days. These conditions are expected to increase with global warming in southern Australia.
Health
Climate change will have serious implications for public health in Australia resulting in increasing social and economic costs. McMichael, Woodruff & Hales studied how vulnerability to climate change related health problems depends on differences in geography, technological resources, governance and wealth. The Australian Greenhouse Office Risk and Vulnerability Report recognise that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders are particularly vulnerable to climate change related health impacts, such as vector- and food-borne disease and temperature-related illnesses.
Rises in ambient temperatures and changes to rainfall patterns will cause the following:
- Increased health problems and death due to heat stress
- Injury, trauma or death caused by extreme weather events
- Greater incidence and extent of infectious disease
- Increased pollution-related respiratory problems in urban areas
The Health Benefits of Mitigating Global Warming in Australia
There is much to be gained in terms of health benefits by mitigating against climate change-related impacts. You can read the report, 'The Health Benefits of Mitigating Global Warming in Australia', authored by CANA and the Australian Medical Association (2007) here:
Heat stress
Heatwaves are a public health issue that has increased in severity and impact in the past decade. For example, the International Federation of Red Cross has reported that 2003 European heatwaves resulted in between 22,000 and 35,000 deaths. During this crisis, health systems in Europe were severely stretched coping with the increased incidence of heat stroke and heat related mortality, with the poor, very young and the elderly most affected. In France, 70 per cent of heatwave deaths are among those over 75 years of age. The United Nations estimates that globally, the number of older persons (60 years or over) will triple to almost 2 billion by 2050. The heatwave resulted in economic losses of over US $13 billion (ibid).
The table below from the International Federation of Red Cross depicts a breakdown of the deaths in Europe by country, with figures provided by the World Health Organisation and Earth Policy Institute.
|
HEAT WAVES: FACTS AT A GLANCE | ||
|
| ||
|
|
WHO |
EPI |
|
| ||
|
France |
14,802 |
14,802 |
|
| ||
|
Germany |
- |
7,000 |
|
| ||
|
Spain |
59* |
4,230 |
|
| ||
|
Italy |
3,134 |
4,175 |
|
| ||
|
Portugal |
2,106 |
1,316 |
|
| ||
|
England and Wales |
2,045 |
2,045 |
|
| ||
|
Netherlands |
- |
1,400 |
|
| ||
|
Belgium |
- |
150 |
|
| ||
|
Total |
22,124 |
35,118 |
|
| ||
*According to WHO, more than 6,000 excess deaths were informally reported during the heatwave in Spain, but only 59 were accepted as being caused by the heatwave.
In relative terms, if greenhouse emissions are not mitigated, the Australian Medical Association (AMA) and Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) estimate that by 2100 between 8,000 and 15,000 Australians could die every year from heat-related illnesses.[1]
Most heatwave deaths occur in people with pre-existing cardiovascular diseases, and people living in thermally inefficient housing in urban environments. This is exacerbated by the urban "heat-island" effect, discribed by McMichael, Woodruff & Hales as high thermal mass and low ventilation in inner urban environments, absorb and retain heat.
Extreme weather events
Projections of frequent and extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes are of significant concern to the AMA and ACF. Annual rainfall is projected to decrease, however the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events is expected to increase in almost all Australian States and Territories. In a report commissioned by the Department of Health and Aging, by the year 2020, the flood risk of the whole country is predicted to increase by between 39% and 97%.
Secondary associated health effects of extreme weather events are displacement of large numbers of people as well as the interruption to key services and infrastructure. Internationally, a characteristic of extreme events is the increased transmission rate of infectious diseases. Whilst these are rarely seen in developed countries such as Australia, the AMA state they may become more of a problem if the frequency and magnitude of these events escalates.
AMA and ACF also report the a risk of mental health problems associated with exposure to extreme weather events with psychological ramifications of surviving an extreme event significant and long lasting. McMichael, Woodruff & Hales note exacerbating vulnerability to flood risks from the trend in high-income countries for people to move to the coast. Given that 80% of the population lives within 50 km of the coast, this is a significant health issue for Australia.
There are a number of diseases that are connected or exacerbated by climate change including:
- water borne disease
- food borne disease
- vector borne disease
- diabetes, hypertention, obesity
- respiratory illness
Water Borne Diseases
Remote Aboriginal communities are particularly vulnerable to water-borne disease resulting from climate change. In central Australia, Aboriginal people living in remote arid communities already have a high number of diarrhoea admissions among children throughout the region. This is likely to increase along with temperature. Given assumptions relating to future climate projections, the mean annual temperatures for this region are projected to increase by 2020 by 0.5-1.0°C, and by 2050 by 1.0-3.5°C. This is predicted to translate to an increase of 3-5% in diarrhoeal admissions by 2020, and of 5-18% by 2050.
Food Borne Disease
Increased temperatures provide opportunity for various viruses, bacteria and parasites to contaiminate food causing gastrointestinal diseases such as diarrhoea and vomiting, although occasionally more severe disease such as haemolytic uraemic syndrome or hepatitis can result. Incidences of bacterial food borne disease increase during the summer months and are worse in the Northern regions of Australia.
There are strong seasonal patterns for Salmonella and Campylobacter infection in Australia. Global warming may increase the incidence of infections, such as salmonellosis, and diseases caused by toxins such as ciguatera, poisoning caused by ingesting fish contaminated with ciguatoxin, characterised by gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms. Higher ocean temperatures may increase the incidence of ciguatera poisoning.
Vector-borne disease
Climate change will cause increased incidences of vector-borne disease in Australia. The most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia is epidemic polyarthritis, which is caused by infection with either Ross River virus or Barmah Forest virus. The Department of Health and Aging report states that as the climate warms up, the tropical weather zone in Australia will spread south, bringing with it disease vectors. Other mosquito-borne diseases that could increase as the temperature increases are malaria, dengue fever, Australian encephalitis, and Japanese encephalitis (AMA and ACF).
Dengue fever is likely to spread in Australia due to climate change. Under predicted climate change scenarios the current dengue risk region will expand substantially, meaning that people in areas as far south as Sydney could be affected by dengue fever by 2100 (ibid).
Diabetes/Hypertension/Obesity
Higher prices for fresh produce are likely to force those on low incomes to purchase lower quality, processed foods. This will further contribute to associated health risks such as childhood obesity. One in four children is currently overweight and it is estimated that half of all young Australians will be overweight by 2025.[2]
The impacts of climate change upon the dietary health of Indigenous people may include increases in diabetes and hypertension, and increased obesity caused by the replacement of traditional food with processed food. Many remote Aboriginal communities that follow a traditional diet could be vulnerable to these health problems due to predicted changes in the amount and distribution of wildlife, fish and vegetation (AMA and ACF).
Respiratory Illnesses
Photochemical smog is generated by the interaction between air pollution, heat, and sunlight in still conditions, resulting in respiratory problems. Prolonged heat conditions can lead to more frequent and severe smog episodes, and the dispersal of allergens - both of which have been linked to respiratory disease (McMichael, Woodruff & Hales).
Below is a table of the implications of climate change for disease in Australia:
|
DISEASE TYPE |
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT |
|
| |
|
Infectious diseases: transmission of infectious disease is determined by many factors, including social, economic, climatic, and ecological conditions. |
Flooding, compromised water and food security and hygiene which is compromised during extreme weather events. |
|
| |
|
Water borne disease: drought and the resultant decline in water quality are responsible for the increased incidence of water-borne disease. |
Water contamination of bacteria, viruses, protozoa and parasites, which often occurs during drought and flooding. |
|
| |
|
Food borne disease: contamination of food by viruses, bacteria and pathogens. |
Increased heat (surface and ocean temperature) increases prevalence of food contaminants. |
|
| |
|
Vector borne diseases: pathogens being transmitted from human to human or animal to human via mosquitoes. |
Increased temperatures and flooding will exacerbate the breeding cycle of mosquitoes. |
|
| |
|
Respiratory illness: atmospheric pollution which inhibits respiratory functioning. |
Prolonged heat can create more smog and dispersal of allergens. |
|
| |
|
Diabetes/Hypertension/Obesity: diseases that can be greatly affected by lifestyle/diet. |
Higher prices for fresh produce could result in lower-income people to eat lower quality/processed food. Changes in wildlife, fish and vegetation could force people to replace traditional eating with processed food. |
Housing
The apartments and houses in which Australians live will be at risk as climate change intensifies. A combination of more intense storms, more frequent bushfires and higher sea levels will not only threaten housing directly, it will also make homes more expensive to insure, to maintain, and to keep cool. And as Australians settle in increasing numbers near the coast and in the hotter outer suburbs of our major cities, their vulnerability will increase.
Across all Australian settlements, increasingly severe extreme weather events will impose the highest direct costs to householders. Natural disasters already cause more than $1.14 billion damage each year to homes, businesses and the nation's infrastructure, along with serious disruptions to communities.
Extreme Weather and Coastal Communities
The increasing intensity, and possibly frequency, of extreme weather events is a major threat to Australian housing. The Sydney hailstorm of 1999 was Australia's most expensive natural disaster, causing at least $1.7b in insured losses. In 2005, storms in NSW and Victoria cost at least $215m, while Cyclone Larry in 2006 is likely to cost in excess of $200m. While these storms cannot be directly attributed to climate change, they are consistent with predictions of some increase in storm severity in temperate latitudes, and significant increases in severity in tropical and subtropical areas.
Around 80% of Australia's population resides within 50 km of the coast, and population growth and investment in these areas is increasing. Between 1991 and 1996, 25% of Australia's population growth occurred within 3km of the coastline, predominantly in Northern NSW, Southern Queensland and southern Perth. Thus an increasing proportion of Australian housing will be exposed to changes to coastal climate, including more intense and widely spread tropical cyclones, storm surges and flooding.
Beachfront housing, in particular, will come under threat from rising sea levels, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts will rise by between 9 and 88 centimetres per decade over the course of the century. The CSIRO forecasts that beaches will be eroded by between 50 and 100 times the vertical rise in sea level, i.e. between 4.5m and 88m by 2100.
Bushfire risk
A hotter and drier climate will intensify the bushfire risk faced by many Australian suburbs. The recent 2002-03-fire season illustrates the magnitude of the threat, with over three million hectares of bushland and vegetation destroyed across the country. The months preceding the fires where characterised by severe drought, abnormally low humidity and high daytime temperatures - all of which are likely to increase, albeit unevenly, as the climate warms. Seven people died in the fires, 400 were injured and 629 homes were lost.
The CSIRO forecasts that climate change could increase the number of very high and extreme fire weather days by between 4-25 percent by 2020 and 15-70 percent by 2050 across parts of south eastern Australia. The changes would be greatest in the inland and relatively less along the coast and in Tasmania. According to a CANA report: "fire as a result of climate change will continue to occur more regularly, causing serious and irreversible damage to national parks, forests and private property."
Heat Islands
Urban 'heat islands' occur when dark surfaces such as roads and concrete absorb (rather than reflect) large amounts of heat and lead to localised high temperatures in cities. Research conducted in the UK suggests that global warming will exacerbate heat island effects, increasing the costs of cooling for urban housing, particularly in the evening. [1]
Unequal impacts
Climate change is likely to disproportionately affect poorer Australians and those who already live in substandard housing. Indigenous communities, are likely to be affected as a result of generally poor housing conditions and greater geographic exposure to tropical and sub-tropical weather extremes. In Australia's larger cities, householders on average incomes are unlikely to afford housing in cooler coastal suburbs, and will face higher summer temperature extremes and cooling energy costs in areas such as South-West Sydney.
The costs of adapting to climate change for householders will include greater expenditure on insurance, and measures such as insulation and air conditioning. Many Australians may not be able to easily meet these costs. As Clive Hamilton, of the Australia Institute observes:
"the key distributional issue governing private financial costs relates to the variation in ability to pay for climate proofing of homes. Clearly wealthier households will be in a better position to protect themselves from the effects of warming and extreme weather events. Poorer households will tend to invest in less effective measures or simply to suffer the consequences."
Even large companies may face serious problems adapting to the financial costs imposed by climate change. As the Allen Consulting Group notes, governments may have to:
"consider the issues around the distribution of losses in the community arising from the possibility of either a withdrawal of insurance from covering some risks, a huge increase in costs, or the failure of one or more major companies."
Indigenous Communities
There has been very little analysis of the impact that climate change will have on Australian indigenous communities. This is a clear gap in the research, which is well recognised by the CSIRO and other major research bodies.
It is clear that climate change is likely to affect Aboriginal communities significantly, as indigenous peoples often lack the economic and technical resources available to non indigenous communities to respond to social and environmental challenges. The existing disadvantage indigenous peoples have of increased experience of significant health problems, insecure and inadequate housing and comparatively lower standards of education and training and lower economic standards of living render indigenous peoples more vulnerable the impacts of climate change.
In particular, indigenous living conditions coupled with projected temperature increases are likely to lead to higher levels of disease and health issues. Aboriginal communities are particularly at risk for water-borne and vector-borne diseases, which can be spread through intake of infected water and food. Climate change is likely to exacerbate poor housing and sanitation, which can increase the spread of such diseases. The dietary health of Aboriginal communities is predicted to suffer, as the plants and animals making up their traditional diet could be at risk of extinction through climate change. A 2004 study reported in Nature magazine that climate change could make between 15-37% of species extinct. These traditional food sources may be replaced with cheaper processed foods. Such a switch in diet would make communities subject to increases in obesity, diabetes, and hypertension that are related to consumption of unhealthy processed foods. Higher rates of disease and illness would not only reduce Aboriginal communities' general health, but it would also make them less resistant to future diseases.
In addition to a decline in health, Aboriginal communities will have to face more extreme weather conditions. The CSIRO website on Australian indigenous communities indicates that there is a "high probability in the near term" that communities will face a more variable climate. Storms and droughts are likely to increase in frequency and intensity leading to increased flooding, contamination of drinking water and potentially unsafe releases of wastewater into the environment. A higher proportion of Indigenous peoples live in rental properties as compared to non-Indigenous peoples, restricting housing options in the face of increasing impacts of climate change on housing and community infrastructre. Reduced employment opportunities and levels of training mean that Indigenous communities are more likely to have limited scope to adapt to the impact of climate change on industries. In particular, climate change is likely to have a substantial impact on the tourism industry, which is a growing source of income for some indigenous communities. Frequent periods of flooding and drought could necessitate migration, which could lead to a loss of place-specific cultural heritage practices and fragmentation of indigenous nations.
Science institutions, such as the New Zealand National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), are increasingly recognising the importance of indigenous knowledge and perspectives on weather, climate variability and change. Examples of indigenous climate knowledge include traditional forecasting techniques based on the observation of constellations in the Andes, as well as seasonal calendars based on observations of environmental change. The Australian BoM, in collaboration with indigenous communities and several Australian institutions, has developed a website showcasing the weather and climate knowledge of countless generations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. The Indigenous Weather Knowledge site presents several seasonal weather calendars used by indigenous groups in various parts of Australia that are finely tuned to local conditions and natural events, often including five, and sometimes seven, distinct seasons. Further expansion of the site will include more information on indigenous interactions with, and knowledge of, weather and climate.
Insurance
Weather and climate are critical variables for the insurance industry. When weather patterns are reasonably stable, the magnitude of possible losses from storms, droughts and floods can be predicted. The industry can then price and spread weather-related risk across multiple policy-holders. But a warmer and more volatile climate will bring unpredictable losses, undermining the insurers' capacity to calculate, price and spread weather-related risk.
The insurance industry was one of the earliest to recognise that climate change will produce more extreme and frequent severe weather events and natural disasters. Industry figures show a threefold increase in the incidence of natural disasters since the 1960s, incurring a 900% increase in economic costs. In the wake of the 2003 European heat wave, Munich Re, the world's largest re-insurer, reported record claims of US$13billion. The company has little doubt that climate change will increase the frequency of these catastrophes:
Exceptional individual events of the past year like the heat wave again provided strong indications of climate change. They show that new types of weather risks and greater loss potentials must be reckoned with in the future...Dr. Gerhard Berz, Head of Munich Re's Geo Risks Research Department: "We will have to get used to the fact that hot summers like the one we had in Europe this year must be expected more frequently in the future. It is possible that they will have become more or less the norm by the middle of the century. The summer of 2003 was a "summer of the future", so to speak. For many years we have been warning about the elevated danger of heat waves and the associated problems and risks. Warmer summers mean a rise in the intensity and frequency of severe weather events.[1]
According to Munich Re, of the 8,820 natural catastrophes analysed worldwide between 1960 and 1999, 85% were weather-related, as were 75% of the economic losses and 87% of the insured losses. Losses in Australia show similar trends, with around 87% of economic losses caused by weather-related events, as shown in the table below.
The table below reports the cost of natural disasters from 1967 to 1999:
|
NSW |
QLD |
NT |
VIC |
WA |
SA |
TAS |
ACT |
Total ($m) |
% of total | |
|
| ||||||||||
|
Floods |
128.4 |
111.7 |
8.3 |
38.5 |
2.6 |
18.1 |
6.7 |
0 |
314.3 |
28.9 |
|
| ||||||||||
|
Severe Storms |
195.8 |
37.3 |
0 |
22.8 |
11.1 |
16.2 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
284.4 |
26.2 |
|
| ||||||||||
|
Cyclones |
0.5 |
89.8 |
134.2 |
0 |
41.6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
266.1 |
24.5 |
|
| ||||||||||
|
Earthquakes |
141.2 |
0 |
0.3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
144.5 |
13.3 |
|
| ||||||||||
|
Bushfires |
16.8 |
0.4 |
0 |
32.4 |
4.5 |
11.9 |
11.2 |
0 |
77.2 |
7.1 |
|
| ||||||||||
|
Landslide |
1.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.2 |
0.1 |
|
| ||||||||||
|
Total ($m) |
483.9 |
239.2 |
142.6 |
93.6 |
62.7 |
46.2 |
18.9 |
0.2 |
1087.3 |
100.0 |
Source: BTE analysis of Emergency Management Australia (EMATrack) database (unpublished; in WWF Climate Change: extreme weather events and its cost).
The IPCC also confirms that "the combined effect of increasingly severe climatic events and underlying socio-economic trends (such as population growth and unplanned urbanisation) have the potential to undermine the value of business assets, diminish investment viability and stress insurers, re-insurers, and banks to the point of impaired profitability and even insolvency."[2]
Rising insurance premiums or withdrawal of insurance coverage in some areas or for some risks may exacerbate existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Those households that cannot afford to insure their homes and contents are also unlikely to afford modifications to their homes. Other trends that may magnify weather-related losses include population movement to more marginal and vulnerable areas, where they will be exposed to increasingly severe and frequent weather events.
In the words of Thomas Loster, climate expert at Munich Re, "We need to stop this dangerous experiment humankind is conducting on the Earth's atmosphere".
Planning
Climate change presents a range of social implications for town planning on two counts: Firstly planning is a mechanism by which adaptation to climate change impacts is possible, and secondly planning influences the level of emissions produced by human settlements.
This is exemplified by a Queensland government report that emphasises impact on the state's coastal regions. Probably the most pressing consequence of climate change on coastal environments is the forecast change in sea level. Queensland's east coast is likely to suffer loss of mangrove habitat, beach erosion, and enhanced storm damage to infrastructure. The likely southern extension of the cyclone range and associated torrential rain events has serious implications for planning, building regulation and the operation of local emergency services.
According to the CSIRO, Cairns is particularly vulnerable to flooding, worsened by climate change. The cost to the community of coastal flooding could more than double in some areas in the next fifty years due to global warming. A 1-in-100 year storm and storm surge would inundate an area twice the size of presently affected areas if flood heights were to increase from 2.6 to 3.0 metres.
Despite these forecast impacts, there is no legislation from the State planning authorities on adaptation to climate change, nor is there any reference at the Federal level by the Australian Building Codes Board to making homes "climate-proof" or resilient to the impacts of climate change.
However in some states, there has been some acknowledgment of the pressing need for planning to adapt to climate change. For example, Victoria's Melbourne 2030 initiative includes a promise to "introduce changes to Victoria's planning and building systems that will be needed to help adapt to the impacts of climate change - following the completion of a three-year CSIRO research program funded by the Government". However are no specific commitments in this promise.
In terms of the role of planning in climate change mitigation, the Australian Government has resolved to eliminate the worst energy performance practices in new buildings by mandating a national minimum energy efficiency requirement.
The Building Code of Australia (BCA), is the natural place for minimum energy requirements of new buildings and major refurbishment. Following studies by the CSIRO Division of Building Construction and Engineering, the Australian Greenhouse Office released a scoping study for incorporating minimum energy performance into the BCA.
A 2004 report by Austroads on the impact of climate change notes a number of ways in which weather influences road maintenance costs. Rainfall, moisture, salinity and high water tables can accelerate wear, as do high temperatures. Given the projections of increased temperatures and flooding due to climate change, it is likely that road maintenance costs will be affected, although they may fall in some areas. The report also examines the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges on roads in coastal areas. Finally, it is forecast that indirect impacts of climate change, such as alterations in the location of population and human activity are likely to affect the demand for roads.
In relation to the effects of climate change on sewerage infrastructure, CSIRO and Melbourne Water conducted a study examining Melbourne's water, sewerage and drainage systems in what is believed to be among the first study to examine these systems in a combined manner. The study concluded that in the future Melbourne is likely to experience increased average and summer temperatures, reduced rainfall, and more extreme weather events.
Such changes would cause risks to Melbourne's water supply, sewerage system and drainage. As a result of the study, the Victorian Government is drawing up a new strategy for the greater Melbourne area, which is examining water conservation, recycling, aquifer storage, stormwater harvesting and desalination plants.
Climate change has the potential to increase energy use in most of the warmer Australian cities and coastal centres. As very hot days increase in frequency, the combined demands of hundreds of thousands of air conditioning units will place large peak demands on the electricity network.
Peak electricity demand is generally associated with cooling/air-conditioning during hot weather, however electric heating in winter can also generate very high demand in areas where gas heating is relatively uncommon. A recent CSIRO report estimates that a temperature rise of 1 degree (relative to 1990) would increase the number of days above 35 degrees by 18% in South Australia and 25% in the Northern Territory. Conversely, energy demand for heating will decline, particularly in Melbourne, where gas is the primary fuel for home heating. The overall effect is likely to be a moderate net increase in energy demand, and a significant increase in infrastructure costs incurred to supply peak energy demand.
The same CSIRO report indicates that an average temperature increase of just one degree will increase peak electricity demand in Adelaide and Brisbane by between 2 and 5%. Heating gas requirements in Sydney and Melbourne would fall slightly. An average temperature increase of 2-3 degrees could increase peak electricity demand by 3 to 15% in Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne, and slightly decrease (-1%) peak demand in Sydney. An increase of 4 or more degrees, at the upper end of forecast projections, would increase peak electricity demand by up to 25% in Adelaide, Brisbane, and Melbourne. Peak demand in Sydney would be unchanged.
In addition to this potential increase in peak demand, higher average ambient temperatures will increase transmission losses in the electricity grid. Increased force of floods and storms will affect also electricity infrastructure such as pipelines and power lines. Heat and extreme weather events that interrupt electricity distribution is referred to as 'supply sensitivity' and has been documented in regions such as Gulf of Mexico.
The 2004 'Somerville Report' of an independent inquiry into Queensland's electricity distribution found that the period of intense heat experience in the summer of 2004 found that emergency cooling systems in some of the states transformers were inadequate and insulation damage had occurred in about half of the transformers tested. The Australian Greenhouse Office commissioned report on Risk and Vulnerability recommended that review of energy management in Australia be undertaken assessing stability measures required to ensure adequate supply of electricity.
Tourism
Unless action is taken urgently, Australia's most famous natural wonders are likely to be amongst the earliest victims of climate change. Kakadu's coastal wetlands may be inundated, the Great Barrier Reef permanently bleached, and Alpine snows reduced to a fraction of their former range. Thousands of unique flora and fauna species may disappear. This is not only a natural tragedy. More than half a million Australians, especially those in regional areas, rely on tourism for their livelihoods.
Tourism is one of Australia's most significant export earners. In 2004-05, international visitors bought $18.3b worth of goods and services, which accounts for 11.1% of total exports. This is comparable in value to the export of food and livestock (11%) or coal and coke (10.5%) (ABS 2005). As a relatively labour-intensive industry, tourism employed 536,600 persons in 2003-2004, or more than 5% of Australia's working population (ABS 2006).
Climate change is a major threat to Australia's most economically significant natural wonder, the Great Barrier Reef. Generating over $4.228 billion per annum, the reef hosts (hyperlink: 800 tour operators and 1500 vessels (Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, "Tourism on the Great Barrier Reef"). As temperatures increase, the reef will be affected by rising sea levels, changing circulation patterns, changes to ocean chemistry and higher water temperatures (GBRMPA, "Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef"). While this will have a diverse range of impacts on wildlife and habitat within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, the most significant impact is likely to be the widespread 'bleaching' or death, of coral.
In 1998 and 2002, the Great Barrier Reef suffered unprecedented levels of coral bleaching due to high ocean temperatures. In 1998 the inshore reefs were the most severely affected, with 67 percent suffering high levels of bleaching and 25 percent suffering extreme bleaching. In 2002, 60 percent of reefs surveyed were bleached. While inshore reefs were again the most affected, a greater proportion of mid-shelf and offshore reefs bleached in 2002 than in 1998. In terms of bleaching severity, 69 percent of inshore reefs had moderate to high levels of bleaching.
The bleaching events have coincided with two of the hottest years on record. The dire implications for the reef are clear: even under the most optimistic coral tolerance and climate scenarios, coral cover is likely to decrease to less than 5% of current levels on most reefs by 2050.
Researchers at James Cook University investigated the significance of the Reef to tourism in North Queensland. They found that, of the 62% of respondents who considered the reef when choosing to visit the area, 66% might not visit if the reef was dead. The university's study concludes that the loss of the reef, either in reality or perception, could result in Cairns losing up to 40% of its visitors.
Kakadu National Park is another World Heritage Area of outstanding cultural and environmental significance. The park's wetlands are listed under the Ramsar Convention for their importance as waterfowl habitat, and the park hosts more than a quarter of Australian bird species. Rock art on the Arnhem Land Escarpment testifies to the cultural richness of over 25,000 years of human settlement in the region. These and related sites remain extremely important to its current Aboriginal custodians. Approximately 200,000 visitors see the park annually, spending more than $122 million (Department of Environment and Heritage, 2004).
A climate change-induced rise in sea levels would threaten about 90 percent of Kakadu's coastal freshwater wetlands with saltwater intrusion. IPCC's projections of 9 to 88cm global average sea level rise by 2100 will jeopardise the habitat of hundreds of species of birds, reptiles and amphibians. This dramatic change to the ecology of Kakadu may severely diminish its attractiveness to visitors, and threaten the livelihoods of traditional owners and others involved in Kakadu's tourism industry. Elsewhere in Australia, damage to biodiversity may hinder tourism. The highland rainforest of North Queensland, also a World Heritage Listed Wet Tropics habitat, could be reduced by 50% by a 1°C temperature increase. Animals at risk include the Daintree River Ringtail Possum and the Golden Bowerbird (Rainforest Cooperative Research Centre). $377 million is spent annually by tourists in these regions.
In NSW, the frequency of a serious bushfire season in the World Heritage Listed Greater Blue Mountains Area could increase from every decade to every five years (ABC Online). This threatens the area's remarkable species diversity, which includes 13% of the world's eucalypts (UNESCO). Tourism is also severely threatened by climate change in the Australian Alps, which are likely to experience a decline in area of snow cover of between 39 and 96% by 2070.
Tourism's Carbon Footprint
Tourism in Australia also has a significant "carbon footprint". This is largely composed of emissions from aviation, about half of which is tourism-related, and which contributes 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions (UNEP). The number of international travelers is expected to increase about 270% from 594 million in 1996 to 1.6 billion by 2020.[7] If nothing is done to lighten its carbon footprint, tourism will be responsible for very large and escalating greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change will influence where it is practical, safe, affordable, comfortable and healthy for Australians to live. Where people live is influenced by many factors, but if people choose or are forced to move to avoid negative impacts, this will affect the job and housing markets and the demand for public services such as transport, health and education. Thinking about who is likely to be most affected, and where, is therefore an important part of determining how Australia should best adapt to climate change.
More than 80% of Australia's population lives within 50km of the coast, which is also used for recreation, industry, agriculture and mariculture. Growing coastal population adds to the exposure of the community to extreme events such as tropical cyclones, storm surges and river flooding.
Conclusion
If climate change were the only factor to consider, these factors would be likely to lead to a further concentration of population in coastal south-eastern Australia by 2030. This is in spite of the impacts of reduced rainfall and rising ocean levels in this area, and would be due to the likelihood of fewer negative impacts in this part of Australia relative to the remainder. Whether or not this scenario will prove correct, the people who are likely to be most severely affected are those without the economic means, education or skills to change where and how they live.
